Schell Shock

THE MAYOR THAT SEATTLE loves to hate certainly acts like he is. Last Saturday, he showed up at 13 events in celebration of Neighborhood Appreciation Day. This year's annual State of the City speech read like a PR flack's laundry list of first-term accomplishments. He says he "loves the job." He has formed an exploratory committee and is contacting supporters about his election plans. Political heavyweight consultant Blair Butterworth is developing the spin.

But the man himself seems a pale imitation of the idea-a-minute visionary who excited Seattle voters in 1997. Face to face, Schell seems tired and cautious, issuing boilerplate bureaucratese about careful management and the need to keep his lips locked until his ideas have been thoroughly vetted by the collaborative process. Yikes!

Then there's the WTO. Does anyone doubt that's what's behind Schell's terrible poll numbers? A recent poll by Elway Research showed that only 27 percent of respondents were likely to vote for Schell again. Most people don't know much about library levies or the Neighborhood Matching Fund, but they do remember how Seattle became a national laughingstock.

Schell is purposely giving off mixed signals about his future. As he told us last week, he doesn't really have to make up his mind until July 27, the end of the filing period. But don't count the mayor out. Seattle incumbents are practically guaranteed a spot on the final ballot.

In seeking to retool his public image, Schell could be facing his toughest task since taking office three years ago. The mayor must make the case that his administration's successes should overshadow the indignities the city suffered from December 1999's six days of tension and tear gas. "I'll start out by saying that I think we've gotten a lot done," says Schell, ticking off the list: a plethora of public-funded projects, including neighborhood libraries, a new City Hall, community center rehabs, upgrades at Seattle Center, increased funding for road repairs, and more services for the homeless. Schell says his administration has helped the private sector build new houses and apartments by providing tax breaks and fast permits.

There have been gaffes. Schell did more to deliver on his campaign vow to turn asphalt-covered school playgrounds into grassy fields (eight completed and eight on the way) than he did on fixing the city's tangled transportation system. Only recently did he solidify his anti-gridlock plan, and his solutions sound suspiciously like his 1997 campaign trail riffs about bikeways and water taxis.

He's also alienated former backers. The Seattle Times, whose editorial columnists pushed Schell to enter the race in 1997 (and then supported him steadfastly after he signed up), has officially ended its long-running love affair with the former developer and Port of Seattle commissioner. Already angry over Schell's WTO performance, the paper's ownership was enraged when the mayor refused to grant interviews to representatives of the paper while their regular reporters were on strike. The Times' endorsement doesn't look likely.

And the mayor has competition. The lineup so far:

• Already in the race is King County Council member Greg Nickels, who came within a few thousand votes of surviving the 1997 mayoral primary.

• Almost in the fray is City Attorney Mark Sidran, who has informed the mayor that he will soon convene his own exploratory committee.

• Lurking in the background is Charlie Chong, the maverick ex-council member Schell brushed aside to win election to the mayor's office.

• Waiting in the wings is council member Jim Compton, a former local television commentator whose superior name recognition allowed him to sweep into office a year ago, despite his late entry into the race.

Chong, who carried the banner of neighborhood discontent four years ago, is the only wild card in this group of middle-aged white guys with moderate Democratic credentials. West Seattle's Nickels could challenge Schell for endorsements on a three-way front—going after the support of Democratic organizations, labor unions, and environmentalists. Sidran, who rudely squelched a unionization effort in his own office, isn't

a labor icon, but he has an undeniable appeal to law-and-order types and folks concerned that Schell hasn't managed to get the trains running on time. Compton ran the city's WTO investigation but is otherwise a low-key council member who has taken few risky votes. He would need the help of a crowded field of less palatable candidates (not unlike the one that's forming right now) to advance beyond the primary.

The main campaign issue will be Schell's own performance in office—what some folks call "the competence issue."

"There's a feeling he's not running the place," says one observer. "Paul has become a focus for a lot of resentments," agrees another Seattle politico. "A lot of people are going to want to vote against him."

Plus, even though Schell ran as a pro-growth candidate in 1997, not everyone has been enthralled with the forest of construction cranes sprouting citywide. Blocked views and noisy construction sites may be cooling citizens' ardor for the theory that more growth and density in the city is a good thing.

Could 2001 be the long-awaited year of tough campaigning? Will Schell's rivals feature WTO scenes of riot-suited police and defiant protesters on their campaign mailers? Will the mayor's synchronize-the-lights transportation plan be ridiculed as a Band-Aid approach? Will Sidran parlay his controversial persona into a sympathy vote as protesters dog his every move on the campaign trail?