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UPDATE: As of Wednesday afternoon at 4:45 p.m., an agreement seems to

Published 11:43 pm Tuesday, March 3, 2015

UPDATE: As of Wednesday afternoon at 4:45 p.m., an agreement seems to

UPDATE: As of Wednesday afternoon at 4:45 p.m., an agreement seems to have been reached, meaning the Major League Soccer season should open this weekend as planned.

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With the arrival of two new franchises and a host of big-name signings, the 2015 Major League Soccer season looks to be one of its most important ever. But with opening day just around the corner, key elements of the unique structure that has allowed MLS to survive some very lean times and expand aggressively in more recent years are being challenged. The league and the players’ union have been locked in a collective-bargaining fight that threatens to wipe out a not-insignificant portion of the season—and with it the momentum the league has gained over the past decade.

Unlike most professional sports labor negotiations, it does not appear that money is the main factor here. According to Jeff Carlisle of ESPNFC.com, the league is prepared to increase both a player’s minimum salary and the per-team salary budget—currently $36,500 and $3.1 million, respectively. There have been rumblings for several years that the more well-heeled ownership groups are pushing for greater spending freedom, and perhaps no single step the league could take would help to improve the quality of play than increasing compensation.

Yet, from the perspective of current players, too drastic a raise might actually be seen as a negative, as those on the lower end of the salary scale could find it difficult to keep their jobs since they could be replaced by more expensive options from outside the league. In that sense, a significant increase to salaries that falls short of drastically changing the landscape is likely the preferred option of both sides. While there are sure to be disagreements as to what exactly constitutes such an increase, finding an acceptable middle ground should be relatively easy.

The real threat to the season is the players’ desire for greater freedom of movement. In the eyes of soccer’s international governing body, FIFA, MLS is the “club” that owns all players’ rights. Because of this, the league has an unusual level of control over player movement significantly higher than is typical internationally. (Even in the context of major North American sports, MLS is unique; while other leagues place multiple restrictions on free agency, at a certain point players are free to accept the most attractive offer presented to them by any interested parties. In MLS, that’s almost never the case.)

This is how it works: At the end of each season, out-of-contract players enter into a comically protracted reshuffling process. Unless a player is in a position to negotiate a significantly higher salary due to interest outside the league, he is expected to report to whichever team gains ownership of his MLS rights and accept a modest raise. This does artificially deflate salaries, but, more important, it helps keep teams relatively well-balanced in terms of talent.

From the beginning, MLS player acquisition rules were largely designed to avoid the fate of the North American Soccer League. In the mid-1970s, that league briefly gained a foothold before suffering a financial collapse after teams with financial means took full advantage of them, and the gap between the haves and have-nots proved fatal. The lessons learned from the NASL became almost a guiding principle for MLS during its lean early days. But now average attendance is on the rise; a lucrative new television deal with FOX Sports begins this season; New York City FC will enter the league after paying a $100 million franchise fee in 2013; established and in-demand players continue to choose MLS over other suitors; and the long-term popularity of soccer in the U.S. seems secure. Times have very clearly changed.

In the interest of ensuring the league’s survival, players once were willing to accept a protectionist structure and salaries so low that they often needed a second job. But in the current CBA negotiation, with the league on solid financial footing for the first time, the players seem significantly less willing to kick that can down the road. MLS union reps have steadfastly claimed that there will be no new deal without free agency, while the owners have been equally resolute in stating that free agency in any form is strictly off the table.

As in any labor negotiation, both sides are bluffing. While the players would almost certainly love to have a system that allows open bidding for their services, they’re fully aware that the owners aren’t going to accept any such thing; the structure of MLS simply won’t allow it. But while “true” free agency, like that seen in most of the rest of the world, isn’t currently feasible, some solution that will protect the league’s single-entity status while giving players greater autonomy is almost certainly possible.

And that’s likely all the players are asking for. So long as MLS maintains such a strict cap and holds veto power over all player transfers and contracts, there’s little risk of bidding wars or financial implosion. In speaking to the media, the players have consistently maintained that they were prepared to strike over free agency, and with highly visible—and highly paid—players such as Michael Bradley stepping to the forefront of the conversation, it’s a pretty powerful message.

But the reality is that the union’s leverage begins to disappear quickly once a work stoppage begins. According to player agent Ted Philipakos, based on publicly available data from 2013, the union has approximately $6 million to support its members in the event of a work stoppage. Those funds won’t last long. And given the financial realities facing the majority of players in the league, enduring months of lost wages could be potentially devastating. While MLS players are no longer subsisting on poverty wages, the majority of players aren’t living in luxury, either. In that sense, the odds would seem to favor a quick resolution.

Sounders fans should hope that this is the case. Six years of record-setting and steadily increasing attendance seems to indicate that the fan base’s passion for the team is anything but a fad. But even if the Sounders are largely unaffected, it’s far from guaranteed that other teams will be so fortunate. Teams that haven’t achieved the same level of engagement and sustained success aren’t likely to find their fans as willing to come back to the games. With the new financial realities of the league demanding real investment in order to remain competitive, those clubs could be severely hamstrung by a lack of revenue. As the history of professional soccer in the U.S. can demonstrate, managing to sustain interest in a select few markets isn’t nearly enough for a league to thrive. And with the fate of teams in MLS being so completely intertwined, a loss of engagement in multiple markets would be a huge blow to the league and with it, the Sounders.

news@seattleweekly.com

Aaron Campeau is the co-host of the Seattle Sounders podcast Nos Audietis, a contributor to Sounder at Heart, and a Sounders season ticket-holder. He continues to believe that trading

Alvaro Fernandez

was the biggest mistake the team has ever made.