Even Nate Silver Can't Figure Out the Washington Senate Race

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Officially stumped.
Statistician rock star Nate Silver famously called the 2008 presidential election down to the last electoral vote. So it says something when a guy with such impeccable political prognostication skills can't make heads or tails out of the conflicting polls coming out of Washington.

As Silver points out, one poll has possible (probable?) Republican challenger Dino Rossi leading incumbent Senator Patty Murray by 10 points. But that same poll -- which comes to the exact opposite conclusion as most surveys of the race -- also has Rossi leading Murray in Seattle. As Wallace Shawn might say: "Inconceivable!"

Silver on-one-hand-but-on-the-others himself into a corner. To the point where even he, the guy who correctly forecasted the most heavily scrutinized horse race in American political history, eventually has to toss his hands up in defeat. "Not even going to try to unpack this one," he says. Like us, he'll have to wait 'til November.

 
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