It shouldn’t take a poll to know that Washington’s gubernatorial race is tighter than a haltertop on a Lynnwood hairstylist. But that is not going

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Republicans Smoking Those Statewide Polls

It shouldn’t take a poll to know that Washington’s gubernatorial race is tighter than a haltertop on a Lynnwood hairstylist. But that is not going to stop news outlets from commissioning endless surveys which wind up stating the obvious.

The latest SurveyUSA/King 5 poll shows Dino Rossi up 48 percent to 47 percent over incumbent Christine Gregoire. For almost a year now, the majority of polls taken have shown the two candidates polling with percentages in the mid-to-high 40s; the difference between the two being well within the slop of the over-cited “margin of error”.

On the August 19 primary, Gregoire received 48.27 percent of the vote, Rossi 46.35 percent.

The Sammamish Republican has inundated television and radio airwaves with a slick ad campaign that has included buying media slots on sports stations and even for the Democratic National Convention. With over 44,000 individual donors, Rossi has raised over $8 million in contributions, $1.2 million in August.

For the next eight weeks expect the same polling data to show that the governor’s race is “too close to call”.

Change in Poll Numbers We Can Believe In?: Although poll numbers for the state’s race for governor have as much suspense as the ending of a Steven Seagal flick, the recent Presidential numbers here will make political observers shout “SayWA!”

In a poll of 900 Washingtonians, 45 percent say they support McCain, 49 percent Obama. This is a swap of 6 points after the Arizona Senator selected Gov. Sarah Palin as his running mate.

A detailed breakdown of the numbers can be found here. But in short, people over 50 prefer McCain, younger voters dig Obama. Washington's rich support the Democrat while the Republican is making gains with folks earning less than $50,000.

It should be noted however that George W. Bush, in 2000 and 2004, after investing zero resources in Washington, still convinced 44.58 and 45.64 percent of voters to support him here respectively. Gore received 50.16 and Kerry 52.82 percent.

Those Bush numbers should be considered the baseline of support McCain can realistically expect.

Like the Man of La Mancha, the impossible dream for the Washington GOP is that a political “moderate” like McCain, a military veteran running with a well-liked woman governor, can attract enough independent voters to put the Evergreen State into play during presidential election for the first time in two decades.

 
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