Typically, those polled are likely voters, not newly-registered voters. So, in light of the fact that the Dems are whupping the Republicans' butts in terms of pumping new blood into the party, I'd take today's news that McCain is beating Obama with a fat pinch of salt (but dang, so much for that Biden bounce). My prediction come November: Obama 51%, McCain 46%, Winguts (Nader, Barr, et. al.) 3%.