In an interview, Gregoire acknowledges that debates are a forum in which she excels. "I'm not into one-liners," she says. "I think the issues deserve more heft than that."
Still, she was back the following day at the Eastside Democrats dinner in Newcastle, giving the same half-casual/half-fighter speech that ended in an awkward attempt to lead the room in an Obama-style rally chant—"Fired up, ready to go!"—an effort that disintegrated into jumbled applause as Gregoire left the stage. She didn't hesitate to bring up the debate, however, and Rossi's "leave the campsite" comment, but it was clear many of those present hadn't watched the showdown.
Kevin P. Casey
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Every campaign season has an X factor, something that could work for or against either candidate; this year it's the economy. "The voters are either going to blame it on the Republican administration in D.C. or they're going to blame it on the Democratic administration in Olympia," says Funk. "How they parcel out the blame for the economic morass will decide the race."
Perhaps a good sign for the Democrats is that Gregoire seems acutely aware that her stewardship of the state's economy is one argument she's got to win to stay in office. Asked in an interview about her most important accomplishment during her first term, Gregoire said matter-of-factly, "If we had perspective, we could see the difference between ours and any other states. We've created jobs. We're third-ranked as the best state to do business, according to Forbes."
However, word last month that a $530 million dip in the state's projected tax revenue will put the budget deficit at $3.2 billion come January will no doubt give Rossi a boost. "I think Dino's had this going his way for several weeks now in terms of the issues like state spending, the economy, and change," says Vance.
The latest Survey USA poll, out Sept. 24, shows a slight rebound for Gregoire, putting her at 50 percent to Rossi's 48—but the candidates are still in a statistical dead heat. "She could lose this," says UW's Olson. "I think it's up for grabs."
A couple of bright spots for Gregoire can be gleaned from her August primary showing. She won in Snohomish and Pierce counties, both of which she lost in 2004. And turnout in her strongest county, King, was an abysmal 34 percent. The general election is sure to yield increased turnout, but either way it's key for Gregoire to dominate King County. Though she fared reasonably well here in 2004, beating Rossi 58 to 40 percent, she did not win as handily as many Democrats have in the state's bluest corner. Presidential candidate John Kerry, for example, carried the county by a 65–34 margin, while Sen. Patty Murray earned 65 percent of the vote.
At the national level, Democrats aren't taking any chances with what is arguably the most competitive gubernatorial race in the country. There was Michelle Obama's appearance at WaMu Theater with Gregoire in July. Democratic strategist James Carville was in town recently to wow party loyalists at the Century Ballroom on Capitol Hill. "You know those right-wing groups, talk radio, that whole freak show is going to come at her with everything they've got," the Ragin' Cajun said. "I want you to be able to tell me, 'Don't worry. We've got everything under control in Washington State.'" And former Vice President Al Gore is expected to make an appearance in the coming weeks to give Gregoire a lift.
Expect the Democrats to hammer Rossi on social issues down the stretch. Though he likes to couch himself as a moderate, Rossi is anti-abortion, against certain rights for domestic partners, and dubious of morning-after contraception and stem-cell research. To this end, the Gregoire campaign started last month to air emotional ads on the need for embryonic stem-cell research and emergency contraception in instances of rape.
To be successful, Gregoire needs to play off her strengths and steer the race away from personality politics or the rematch narrative. "You need to wherever possible have that one-on-one engagement," says Sinderman. "Keep her out in the community talking about her record."
For his part, Wilson suggests letting "Gregoire be Gregoire"—as long as that means tapping her inner fighter. "Does she need to develop a message as to why she deserves another term?" he adds rhetorically. "Hell, yeah."
acurl@seattleweekly.com
