The Super Flood

The travel time for a large lahar from Rainier to Orting could be as little as 30 minutes, according to the USGS. In a recent computerized mock drill using a warning time of 45 minutes, Orting could only make its evacuation plan work by having people drive on the one road heading in the direction of the lahar.

Moreover, it is doubtful that a majority of residents in the path of a lahar would even recognize what evacuation sirens meant. Pierce County officials have found a surprising lack "of knowledge on the hazards that the mountain represents to the communities that surround it. There was and is a strong assumption by people that the mountain is 'extinct,' or at worse 'dormant,'" according to the volcanic hazards plan. The Pierce County Natural Hazard Mitigation Plan makes it plain what the consequences for Orting could be in the event of a lahar: "In those areas with deeper mud, such as Orting, the original town would never be uncovered."

Leif Jones

Details

MORE ABOUT MOUNT RAINIER AND LAHARS

Osceola Mudflow animation
An artist's conception of how the Osceola Mudflow from Mount Rainier might have looked. By Jose Vigil of the U.S. Geological Survey. MPEG video (1.6 megabytes)

U.S. Geological Survey (www.usgs.gov)
The basics: Types and Effects of Volcano Hazards
Volcano news: Cascade Range Current Update
Scientific paper: Sedimentology, Behavior, and Hazards of Debris Flows at Mount Rainier

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More About

• Pat Pringle
• Mount Rainier
• U.S. Geological Survey
• Volcanic Eruptions
• Natural Disasters

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The unabated construction of thousands of new homes in known lahar paths leaves Pringle "flabbergasted. It doesn't take a brain surgeon to know what is going to happen in the future. But a geologist can only be an advocate for taking information seriously. We can't step out of our role and ask, 'Why don't you get out of harm's way?' because it is not what we are tasked to do."

As the clock ticks, the probability of a giant killer lahar is increasing. In Mount Rainier: Learning to Live With Risk, the USGS says there is at least a 1-in-7 chance of such a lahar occurring during an average human life span. As for a flood on the scale of the Osceola, characterized by scientists as "low probability and high consequences," USGS volcanologist Swanson does not discount a reprise. "Anything that has happened in the past can happen again, unless the source area has so drastically changed, and clearly that is not the case here."

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