Unfortunately for the Republicans, Bridges does not appear to be anything like a partisan. While he has said he will allow the GOP to present its statistical analysis during a special hearing at trial, he has not indicated that he will actually allow its use to decide the case, much less whether he will find it convincing. This is a bench trial, there is no jury, and Republicans must convince Bridges to declare Gregoire's election invalid and the office of governor vacant—in which case, Lt. Gov. Owen would become governor—or declare that Rossi was the actual winner. Bridges has patiently explained more than once that the law presumes that the election of Gregoire is valid. Rossi and the Republicans must prove otherwise. Whatever Bridges decides will not settle it. The losing side will appeal to the state Supreme Court, a wholly different legal and political arena.
Political consultants around the country are watching the lawsuit and public relations campaign carefully. To date, there has been no downside for Rossi. He has kept his hopes for a new election alive in the legal arena and continued to be popular in public opinion polls—setting up a possible rematch with Gregoire in 2008, should his court case fail. Says Strategic Vision CEO David Johnson, a national Republican political consultant: "The political class, consultants—everybody is taking a look at it." Mark Mellman, a national Democratic consultant from D.C. who worked for Gregoire in 2004, agrees: "There's no question that not only the consultants but also the parties are looking at this case. It could well encourage many future challenges in many future close elections."
Elaine Thompson / Associated Press
Dino Rossi (right) listens to Slade Gorton do his bidding at a GOP news conference.
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Professor Rick Hasen, an elections expert at Loyola University Law School, notes that the number of legal challenges has already climbed in the wake of Bush v. Gore from 62 cases in 1998 to 250 cases in 2002. "There is much less concern about damage to the democratic process and more concern about who won," he says.
University of Washington political scientist Bryan Jones thinks technological advances have encouraged electoral challenges. Computers have made it easy to collect and analyze data, he says. Before, if a candidate wanted to challenge results, he or she would have had to pay to have paper ballots recounted by hand. Jones thinks election challenges are actually good for democracy. "The more you look into this, you give people confidence that the system works right," he says. "It also makes the election administration better—which is even more important—because people are looking over their shoulder." Jones has examined the evidence in this case, and he has come to a very different conclusion than the Republicans' PR campaign. "What's amazing to me is how well this election was run," he says.
Western Washington professor Donovan agrees that the 2004 election's administration is holding up well under the microscope, but he thinks challenges have been bad for democracy. Opinion surveys show that supporters of the losing candidate in an election tend to be distrustful of the electoral system—for example, Democrats in 2000's presidential race and Republicans in 2004's Washington gubernatorial contest. "If you ratchet up the rhetoric, you start making more people more distrustful," Donovan says. "Is American democracy over? I don't think so, but the bitterness and cynicism on the loser's side will be more amplified."
That bitterness will flow into the governing process. Elected officials of both parties will be less likely to cross party lines to pursue sensible legislation that represents the public interest.
Rossi contends that his lawsuit is serving the public interest by forcing a cleanup of the electoral process. The GOP has done a tremendous job of using the real flaws in the electoral system to fulminate about how Rossi was unfairly denied the governor's mansion. Democrats have never figured out how to mount a rhetorical counteroffensive—although recently they have been trying. Even if Rossi loses his court case, GOP rhetoric might succeed in undermining Gregoire and helping Rossi win election as governor in a 2008 rematch. If that occurs, the election challenge will have succeeded on a political level, even if it failed legally.
If, however, Democrats can defend Gregoire's election in the courts and mount a successful rhetorical strategy that marginalizes Rossi as a sore loser, election challenges might not seem so attractive to other candidates around the country, and the search for a better monkey wrench will focus elsewhere.
ghowland@seattleweekly.com
