The Targets of 2006

Two of the nation's top political targets were in town last week, and they were both talking about President Bush's plan to privatize Social Security. On March 29, U.S. Rep. Dave Reichert, R-Auburn, held a "Social Security Workshop" in Belle-vue, the largest city in his 8th District, which stretches along the Eastside suburbs down into rural areas of King and Pierce counties. On March 31, Democratic U.S. Sen. Maria Cantwell hosted a Seattle rally to "stop privatization" of Social Security. Surprisingly, both forums highlighted how hard it is to sell Bush's privatization scheme. Even more striking, though, was how well Reichert is playing the terrible hand the president has dealt him and how difficult Cantwell finds it to take advantage of the GOP's weakness on the issue.

Enacted in 1935, the Social Security Act established an insurance program for retired people, the disabled, and the children of deceased workers, among others. Funded through a payroll tax with contributions by workers and their employers, Social Security now sends monthly checks to around 47 million Americans. The program has been an astounding success in its goal of reducing poverty among the vulnerable, particularly the elderly. Free-market conservatives have opposed Social Security throughout its history. Led now by Bush, the right is taking another run at the program, claiming it is facing a crisis of insolvency because of the demographics of the baby boom generation. Previously, Congress has ensured Social Security's health by raising the payroll tax and the retirement age. Instead of such modest adjustments, Bush is seeking to change Social Security from an insurance program to a private retirement account—kind of like a government-run 401(K). While lying to the American people about Iraq's weapons of mass destruction or Saddam's links to Al Qaeda was relatively easy to pull off, it's proving a lot harder for Bush to sell his Social Security snake oil. For starters, it's obvious to everyone that even if the solvency problem is as dire as Bush claims, allowing younger workers to divert some of their payroll taxes into private accounts won't address it. Even the Republicans admit that the government will have to borrow $750 billion to help with the "transition" to personal accounts. (Democrats say it's $5 trillion.)

Bush and his people have been barnstorming the nation, and the more people hear, the less they like it. Last Friday, April 1, with Bush's poll numbers in a free fall, Republican Speaker of the House Dennis Hastert, R-Ill., acknowledged that Social Security reform was unlikely this year. And if you think Republicans will grab onto the third rail of American politics in 2006, an election year, I've got a private account I'd like you to invest in.

In this political context, Cantwell and Reichert find themselves the unwanted objects of attention. Reichert, the former King County Sheriff who successfully pursued the Green River Killer, just started serving in the House in January, but he has already been identified as one of the nation's 10 most vulnerable Republican House members by the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC). While Reichert jokes about the sheriff being on the 10 Most Wanted List, the NRCC has identified him as vulnerable so that he will get the early funding he needs. Cantwell, meanwhile, is "number one" on the list of Bush's political targets, according to a fund-raising letter obtained by The National Journal, written by Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., chair of the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee.

The description of the two incumbents as vulnerable must be understood in relative terms. For instance, neither has a declared opponent yet. And while nothing says winner like incumbency in modern American politics, the time when incumbents are most vulnerable is after they complete their first term. Reichert and Cantwell both face their first re-election campaigns in 2006.

In 2000, Cantwell won her Senate seat by a mere 2,229 votes out of more than 2.4 million, beating incumbent Republican Slade Gorton. Her miniscule margin of victory alone would make her a Republican target. (She also has been in this fix before, as a one-term U.S. representative who lost her 1st District House seat in the 1994 election to Rick White.) Cantwell hasn't helped herself by being a tepid fund-raiser who has yet to retire $2.5 million in campaign debt—mostly owed to herself. She financed her first campaign largely with her own wealth from Real Networks stock, which has since fallen dramatically in value. In addition, Cantwell hasn't been a high- profile senator—admittedly a difficult task for a rookie from the minority party who is working with a senior member, U.S. Sen. Patty Murray, D-Wash. Murray is renowned for bringing home the bacon. And since Bush desperately wants a filibuster-proof, 60-member Republican majority in the Senate, which might enable him to really dismantle Social Security, it's easy to see why Cantwell will be in the White House's sights.

In his first election for any office, last year, Reichert proved to be terrible at debating his opponents but good at pressing the flesh. He faced down KIRO-AM talk-show host Dave Ross, a Democrat who fit the district's moderate profile but wasn't an outstanding campaigner. While Reichert won 51.5 percent to 46.7 percent, the Democrats' presidential candidate, John Kerry, and Murray also won the 8th District. Looked at in national terms, if you put together the relatively close margin of victory and Democratic candidates' success in the district, you have a real swing area. One that's not buying the President's Social Security boondoggle.