So what's ahead for Seattle readers in coming months? "Expect a lot of bold headlines," cracks one insider. Both papers are expected to trot out investigative packages during the first month of dual morning operation—kind of a journalistic version of Sweeps Week. One ex-staffer predicts the two dailies will engage in more "ambulance-chasing" type coverage, continuing the recent trend of milking tragedies for human interest appeal.
But Times staffers very likely welcome the shift to morning publication. The afternoon publication schedule tends to stretch the process of story writing over parts of two days, with a writer completing a story in the afternoon, then seeing it rewritten in the morning to reflect new developments. Afternoon distribution also means that readers in outlying areas, including the state capital of Olympia, don't see the paper until around dinner time, which reduces its influence.
Rick Dahms
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Arguably, Seattle might be that special city that can support two dailies. The financial problems that forced the P-I into the JOA were caused more by slipping advertising revenues than low circulation. But Professor Clifford Rowe of Pacific Lutheran University isn't so sure that both newspapers can thrive indefinitely. "We're in an economic boom time, so everybody's doing pretty well," says Rowe, a 13-year veteran of the Times. "But when that changes, it's going to be tough on both the new media and some of the existing (papers)."
A more immediate hit may be taken by the Eastside Journal, which has tightened its focus on local news since the Times began an all-out effort to beef up news coverage and circulation east of Lake Washington. Publisher Horvitz and editor Tom Wolfe are taking a stay-the-course attitude. "We just intend to do what we do best—emphasize local news—and let them play out their game plan," Wolfe says. Horvitz says the short-term effects on the Eastside Journal will be minimal. "We have spent many years working to differentiate our newspapers from the Times and the P-I," he says. "We believe that our readers are reading us for different reasons and they will continue to read us."
Underwood says the Journal has gone too far in its local bent by dropping its Olympia bureau. "I can't take seriously a journalistic operation that goes in that direction," he says. "What should happen to the Eastside Journal is they should be damn scared."
Fancher notes that the Times already distributes more papers on the Eastside than the Journal (the Times east zone edition has a circulation of 52,856 as compared with the Journal's total circulation of 26,927). "We'll continue to be aggressive about our coverage over there," he says. "We are the Eastside's newspaper, there's just no question about that."
The failure of either the Times or P-I would bring tough times for the surviving partner. Historically, newspaper readers are such creatures of habit that when a big-city daily folds, its competitor only picks up about half its circulation. The Times is also expected to lose a chunk of subscribers when it shifts to morning distribution. However, the long-term prospect of a market monopoly has an obvious commercial, if not reader, appeal.
The Eastside Journal's Horvitz argues that the JOA amendments have sealed Seattle's fate as an eventual one-newspaper town. While the battle of the newsrooms may provide short-term excitement, the move to two morning papers and the business deal cut by the Times and P-I "create the economic incentive to combine the two newspapers in the future," he argues.
Asked whether the Seattle will be a two-newspaper town a decade from now, former Times sports reporter Elliott Almond wasn't so sure.
"The short answer is I'm afraid that it's not going to be," says Almond, now a staffer with the San Jose Mercury News. "I think as soon as they entered into that agreement, it signaled the horrifying death of one of those papers. As fierce rivals as they are with each other, nobody wants to see the other paper go down. One, you don't want to see other people losing jobs. But it's also bad for Seattle."
"I would say that they'll both still be around in 10 years," says Underwood. "Farther down the road, I'd say my vision darkens."
Almond adds one more piece of advice about the coming newspaper war: Enjoy it. "As least for the time being," he says. "Seattle is going to be a heck of a newspaper town."
